Would You Fall For It?

A scam artists sends a message to a little over 100,000 fans. The day before the first big game of the season, he informs half of them that Team A is going to win, and the other half that Team B will win. After the game, half of the fans discover that his prediction was wrong. The scam artist never contacts these individuals again.

Instead, the day before the next game, he focuses on the approximately 50,000 fans for whom his prediction was correct during the first week. He divides them into two groups. He informs half that Team A will win and the other half that Team B will win. After this game, half find out that his prediction was wrong again. The scammer never reaches out to these people, but now, around 25,000 fans have seen two correct predictions consecutively.

The scammer repeats this process seven more times. By the end, there’s a group of 200 fans left who have witnessed the scam artist predict every game correctly for nine consecutive weeks, including some long shots.

On the 10th week, the scammer messages each of these 200 fans, offering to reveal the winner of the next game for a hefty price of five thousand dollars.

Would You Fall For it?

That’s how these scams work. They start large in this case a pool of 100k people and they widdle it down to just a small group of people in this example a pool of 200 people. These 200 people think that this scammer is a god now and they can’t lose.

Be ever so careful of what seems too good to be true because often times it is.